*New* 2011 Census Estimates

[DMRyan]

A place to talk about the newly released Census estimates for all of Iowa and other cities.

The Des Moines area grew by 10,662 people for a total of 580,225. Dallas County is 7th fastest growing county in the nation.

[Mastermind]

A place to talk about the newly released Census estimates for all of Iowa and other cities.

The Des Moines area grew by 10,662 people for a total of 580,225. Dallas County is 7th fastest growing county in the nation.

DSM Metro 48th Fastest Growing Metro by Percent Change 1.9%
53 by numeric growth 10,622

Peers:
Charleston 2.6%, 17,514
Colorado Springs 2.3%, 14,706
Omaha 1.4%, 11,760
Albuquerque 1.3 %, 11,563
Boise 1.8%, 11,103

[Mastermind]

For comparison purposes, we averaged 1.83% growth from 2000-2010

[DMRyan]

Curious to see if any additional counties are added to the Des Moines metro area based on commuter patterns. I'm not sure when the redefined metro areas will be announced. I would imagine that with the loss of Maytag, Jasper County would likely be close. Marion and Clarke Counties are the two wild card guesses for additions to the MSA as well.

Here's the numbers for the metros that are entirely within Iowa: I haven't found data released for neighboring states yet, so no Omaha-Council Bluffs, Quad Cities, Sioux City, or the probable newest addition of an Iowa county to a metro area, Lyon County to the Sioux Falls metro.

Des Moines-West Des Moines:
Polk: 437,399
Dallas: 69,444
Warren: 46,732
Madison: 15,779
Guthrie: 10,901
Total:580,255

Cedar Rapids:
LInn: 213,875
Benton: 26,092
Jones: 20,608
Total:260,575

Waterloo-Cedar Falls:
Blackhawk: 131,549
Bremer: 24,281
Grundy: 12,549
Total: 168,379

Iowa City:
Johnson: 133,038
Washington: 21,855
Total: 154,983

Dubuque:
Dubuque: 94,658
Total: 94,658

Ames:
Story: 89,663
Total: 89,663

Cedar Rapids-Iowa City combined: 415,558

Des Moines-Ames combined: 669,918

[DMRyan]

I don't have the county breakdown, but I found the estimates for the other bi-state metros in Iowa:

Omaha-Council Bluffs
877,110

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island
381,342

Sioux City:
144,062

Most populous metros:

1. Omaha-Council Bluffs--877,110
2. Des Moines-West Des Moines--580,255
3. Davenport-Moline-Rock Island--381,342
4. Cedar Rapids--260,575
5. Waterloo-Cedar Falls--168,289
6. Iowa City--154,893
7. Sioux City--144,062
8. Dubuque--94,648
9. Ames--89,663

[econboy]

What I found stunning in these numbers-

Statewide gain is 15,559.

Metro DSM gain 10,622.


69% of the statewide gain so far has been in the Des Moines metro!

[DMRyan]

...and the rest is from Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.

[Mastermind]

Doesnt look like we passed anyone, and no one passed us in terms of rank. Syracuse, Scranton, Youngstown, Toledo and Akron continue to lose population.
Wichita only gained 2,000 people. I can see us passing them around 2015 or 2016.


95 10420 Akron, OH 703,200 703,200 702,868 701,456
96 44700 Stockton, CA 685,306 685,306 687,661 696,214
97 44140 Springfield, MA 692,942 692,942 693,010 693,204
98 16700 Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC 664,607 664,607 667,713 682,121
99 39100 Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY 670,301 670,301 671,290 672,871
100 45060 Syracuse, NY 662,577 662,579 662,883 662,553
101 17820 Colorado Springs, CO 645,613 645,613 650,609 660,319
102 45780 Toledo, OH 651,429 651,429 651,150 650,266
103 24860 Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC 636,986 636,988 638,968 647,401
104 15980 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 618,754 618,754 620,450 631,330
105 14260 Boise City-Nampa, ID 616,561 616,561 618,053 627,664
106 48620 Wichita, KS 623,061 623,061 624,099 625,526
107 29460 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 602,095 602,095 602,924 609,492
108 19780 Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA 569,633 569,633 571,938 580,255
109 31540 Madison, WI 568,593 568,593 569,800 576,467
110 42540 Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA 563,631 563,630 563,698 563,223
111 49660 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA 565,773 565,773 564,973 562,739
112 12260 Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 556,877 556,877 558,385 561,858
113 36260 Ogden-Clearfield, UT 547,184 547,184 549,546 555,916
114 25420 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 549,475 549,475 551,081 552,911
115 27140 Jackson, MS 539,057 539,057 540,072 545,394
116 37340 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 543,376 543,372 543,828 543,566
117 39340 Provo-Orem, UT 526,810 526,810 530,105 540,834
118 16860 Chattanooga, TN-GA 528,143 528,143 529,222 533,372

Of the 20 MSAs ahead of us, only Fort Meyers, Charleston, Colorado Springs grew faster

[Mastermind]

[GoVerticalDSM]

This is great news for DSM, it grew despite companies like Principal and Wells Fargo cutting their numbers locally in the last 2 years. It shows good resiliency. Now that DM is picked to be the #2 job creating metro in the nation by Forbes, hopefully we will see accelerated growth, based on that estimate.

[erik]

Here is the breakdown of the Omaha - Council Bluffs NE/IA metropolitan area:

First, from July 1st 2010 (Note: Not April 1st) to July 1st 2011:
Omaha - 868,097 - 877,110 +09,013 +1.0% 58th largest size, 45th largest numerical gain
Lincoln - 302,954 - 306,503 +03,549 +1.2% 154th largest size, 98th largest numerical gain
__________________________________________________
Total - 1,171,051 - 1,183,613 +12,562 +1.1% 47th largest size, 39th largest numerical gain

Despite the Omaha-Lincoln-Council Bluffs NE/IA areas high growth rate compared to the national average, Des Moines had a markably higher growth rate still. Think about that for a second!

Here are the April 1st 2010 - July 1st 2011 county breakdowns:
Douglas County NE 517,110 to 524,861 +7,751 +1.5%
Sarpy County NE 158,840 to 162,561 +3,721 +2.3%
Pottawattamie IA 93,158 to 93,518 + 360 +0.4%
(Dodge County 36,691 to 36,773 + 82 +0.2%)
Cass County NE 25,241 to 25,188 - 53 -0.2%
Saunders County NE 20,780 to 20,867 + 87 +0.4%
Washington County NE 20,234 to 20,295 + 61 +0.3%
Harrison County IA 14,928 to 14,828 - 100 -0.7%
Mills County IA 15,059 to 14,992 - 67 -0.4%

Lancaster NE 285,407 to 289,800 +4,393 +1.5%
Sewared NE 16,750 to 16,703 -47 -0.3%

___________________________________________________________________________
Next year the OMB will update the counties to each metropolitan area. Dodge county will now be considered
as part of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area and will add about 36,773 to the total population. Lincoln may/may not see Saline or Johnson counties added as they both have been on the cusp of meeting the 25% commuter thresholds needed to be added. Des Moines or other Iowa MSAs may see counties added as well. Grand Island, NE has met the urban area requirement (note no longer a city limit requirement) to become Nebraska's fourth metropolitan area (Omaha, Lincoln, Sioux City and now Grand Island).

The Omaha - Council Bluffs MSA should reach 1,000,000 by 2020

July 1st 2010 to July 1st 2011
Omaha - Council Bluffs NE/IA MSA - 904,788 to 913,883
Omaha - Lincoln - CB NE/IA CMSA - 1,207,742 to 1,220,386

[erik]

What I found stunning in these numbers-

Statewide gain is 15,559.

Metro DSM gain 10,622.


69% of the statewide gain so far has been in the Des Moines metro!

Check out Nebraska!
Omaha - Lincoln - Council Bluffs (NE side only) + 15,913
Grand Island - Kearney - Hastings (tri-cities) +1,505
State of Nebraska +16,300

97.625% of the state growth is in the Omaha - Lincoln area
106.859% of the state growth is in the Omaha - Lincoln and Tri-cities areas


Which normally the state decline is annually about .4% when you take out the cities. The fact that the decline is only .02% is actually rather encouraging!

[jhuston]

Despite the Omaha-Lincoln-Council Bluffs NE/IA areas high growth rate compared to the national average, Des Moines had a markably higher growth rate still. Think about that for a second!

No surprise really.. rural population continues to move to the suburban centers... Iowa has over one million more people than Nebraska. I would expect that Des Moines will eventually surpass Omaha in population... though that may well be a century away.

[erik]

Despite the Omaha-Lincoln-Council Bluffs NE/IA areas high growth rate compared to the national average, Des Moines had a markably higher growth rate still. Think about that for a second!

No surprise really.. rural population continues to move to the suburban centers... Iowa has over one million more people than Nebraska. I would expect that Des Moines will eventually surpass Omaha in population... though that may well be a century away.

That may be true. I can see that scenario playing out. Although their are several important factors to consider.

1) Des Moines will eventually combine with Ames, while Omaha - Council Bluffs - (now Fremont) will combine with Lincoln
2) Council Bluffs is beginning to pull some Iowans to the city as the image of the city has been slowly changing. CB actually is becoming a fun city to be in despite the Council Tuckey label.
3) The state of Nebraska and the state of Iowa have been nearly identical in numerical growth over the last two census periods.
4)Iowa has a bunch of mid-sized cities that may/may not end up splitting some of this growth which includes Des moines - Ames, Iowa City - Cedar Rapids, Quad Cities, Waterloo - Cedar Falls and Sioux City. Nebraska only has one real core in Omaha - Lincoln. I know Grand Island is going to be a new MSA and the tri-cities are growing, but they are too small to really take in too much of Nebraska's future growth. This means in order for the 1 million extra people in the state of Iowa to help grow Des Moines into a larger metro area than the Omaha metro, these other Iowa cities would have to freeze in growth and even decline.

What I do see happening here is a Des Moines metro that will continue to grow at a faster rate than Omaha for the foreseable future. However, the migration rate causing the Des Moines metro to have this high growth rate will become less and less impactful as the rural areas continue to get smaller and Des Moines continues to get larger. Even now, the higher growth rate in Des Moines has not meant equal or higher numerical gains than its sister city (although it is is fairly close (anywhere between 80-90% any given year). These are some important dynamics to consider. But in the end, I think Des Moines and Omaha are two great, peer cities that should continue to grow above the national average and provide some of the highest quality of life for its citizens and a continuously growing entertainment scene for quite some time.

[econboy]

Consider though too that not really all of the migration into Des Moines comes from rural Iowa. Much of it also comes from outside the state. Especially in the last several years. Try not to look at it as a factor of only being limited to what the rest of Iowa still has in it population-wise. No doubt it is a larger factor but it's not as if those other million Iowans will all leave and move right into Des Moines.

[erik]

Consider though too that not really all of the migration into Des Moines comes from rural Iowa. Much of it also comes from outside the state. Especially in the last several years. Try not to look at it as a factor of only being limited to what the rest of Iowa still has in it population-wise. No doubt it is a larger factor but it's not as if those other million Iowans will all leave and move right into Des Moines.

Yeah. Both Des Moines and Omaha pull good domestic and international migration. Surprisingly a good number of rural decline leaves the state while much of Omaha's in migration comes from out of state.

[Mastermind]

Next year the OMB will update the counties to each metropolitan area. Dodge county will now be considered
as part of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area and will add about 36,773 to the total population. Lincoln may/may not see Saline or Johnson counties added as they both have been on the cusp of meeting the 25% commuter thresholds needed to be added. Des Moines or other Iowa MSAs may see counties added as well. Grand Island, NE has met the urban area requirement (note no longer a city limit requirement) to become Nebraska's fourth metropolitan area (Omaha, Lincoln, Sioux City and now Grand Island).

The Omaha - Council Bluffs MSA should reach 1,000,000 by 2020

July 1st 2010 to July 1st 2011
Omaha - Council Bluffs NE/IA MSA - 904,788 to 913,883
Omaha - Lincoln - CB NE/IA CMSA - 1,207,742 to 1,220,386

Where can we find these critical commuter numbers?

[erik]

Next year the OMB will update the counties to each metropolitan area. Dodge county will now be considered
as part of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area and will add about 36,773 to the total population. Lincoln may/may not see Saline or Johnson counties added as they both have been on the cusp of meeting the 25% commuter thresholds needed to be added. Des Moines or other Iowa MSAs may see counties added as well. Grand Island, NE has met the urban area requirement (note no longer a city limit requirement) to become Nebraska's fourth metropolitan area (Omaha, Lincoln, Sioux City and now Grand Island).

The Omaha - Council Bluffs MSA should reach 1,000,000 by 2020

July 1st 2010 to July 1st 2011
Omaha - Council Bluffs NE/IA MSA - 904,788 to 913,883
Omaha - Lincoln - CB NE/IA CMSA - 1,207,742 to 1,220,386

Where can we find these critical commuter numbers?

Local government websites. I am fairly certain there are Iowa numbers somewhere.

The dodge county numbers are found here (warning 10mb size pdf file!): http://nlc1.nlc.state.ne.us/epubs/L1100/S013.2180-2011.pdf

Page 29 side caption:
The map to the left shows where workers
live who are employed in the Fremont
MC. There were 17,167 workers living in
the Fremont MC in 2008, according to the
U.S. Census Bureau. Of those resident
workers, 9,090 (53.0%) remained in the
MC area to work.There were 8,077 (47.0%) resident
workers who commuted out of the MC,
resulting in a net loss of 2,237 workers
from commuting.
Nearly two-thirds (65.1%) of outcommuters
are traveling to contiguous
counties to the Fremont MC. Over twothirds
(67.7%) of commuters are traveling
to the Omaha MSA for work, while 12.9%
of commuters are traveling to the Lincoln
MSA for work. There were 280 Fremont
MC out-commuters traveling to out-ofstate
work, constituting 1.7% of the MC
resident workers. Most of these workers
(166)are traveling to Iowa.

47% of Fremont workers commute out of Dodge County. 67.7% of these commuters travel to the Omaha MSA for work while 12.9% travel to the Lincoln MSA for work.
.47 * .677 = .318 or 31.8% of the entire Fremont commuter workforce travels to the Omaha MSA in 2008.
.47 * .129 = .06063 or 6.06% of the entire Fremont commuter workforce travels to the Lincoln MSA in 2008.

[Mastermind]

Thanks, I know i have asked and others have as well. I have yet to see the threshold or the actual commuter numbers.

[Mastermind]

Will Dodge county become part of the CSA or MSA?


Jasper County has a labor force of 15,710 employed residents, but only 10,500 66% are employed within the county. They are already a part of the CSA, I image they are very close to 25% employed in DSM MSA if that is the threshold.

[erik]

Thanks, I know i have asked and others have as well. I have yet to see the threshold or the actual commuter numbers.

The US OMB definitions: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/fedreg_2010/06282010_metro_standards-Complete.pdf

[erik]

Will Dodge county become part of the CSA or MSA??

Fremont was at 22% in 2000 which allowed it to be defined with the Omaha-Council Bluffs CSA. That is the current definition. It's 2008 numbers will now allow Dodge county (Fremont) to be upgraded as part of the MSA.

As you know, Omaha is growing primarily straight west and south. Saunders County is going to be one of the fast growing OMaha- Council Bluffs MSA counties very soon. I noticed there is only four to five miles remaining in southwest douglas county!

[Mastermind]

Thanks, Erik. I know DMRyan has hinted to Jasper coming over to DSM MSA. I think those numbers 34% outside of Jasper county proves it will happen very soon.

[erik]

25% of the county or a larger core community must travel to an MSA to be counted as part of the MSA.
15% of the county or a larger core community must travel to an MSA to be countes as part of a CSA.

I'm not sure, but I believe the community must have either 5,000 or 10,000. It's an either or. It will be added if the community doesn't qualify but the county does and vice versa.

So yes, Jasper county will be part of the MSA in 2013!

[erik]

Here's a tool by the US department of the census that gives some tracking information. It is kinda hard to use at first as it is an interactive map tool.

http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

[erik]

So far it appears:
Dodge qualifies for the Omaha MSA with a 31.8% commuter percentage
Saline qualifies for the Lincoln MSA with a 31.6% commuter percentage

The soon to be Omaha - Lincoln CSA (and eventual MSA) is becoming more apparent as 11% of Lancaster county travels to the Omaha MSA (10.3% if you don't count Fremont, but you'll have to soon). The percentage was just 7.4% in 2002. Only 4% off from becoming a CSA and 14% off from an MSA and apparently closing up pretty fast.

____________________________________________________________________________________

So far it appears on county will be added to Omaha and one to Lincoln:
Dodge qualifies for the Omaha MSA with a 31.8% commuter percentage
Saline qualifies for the Lincoln MSA with a 31.6% commuter percentage

Only 4% from Omaha - Lincoln CSA, 14% from MSA and closing fast:
The soon to be Omaha - Lincoln CSA (and eventual MSA) is becoming more apparent as 11% of Lancaster county travels to the Omaha MSA (10.3% if you don't count Fremont, but you'll have to soon). The percentage was just 7.4% in 2002. Only 4% off from becoming a CSA and 14% off from an MSA and apparently closing up pretty fast.

Here are the latest estimates from the US department of the Census for July 1st, 2011 including the new counties:

First the current definitions, from July 1st 2010 (Note: Not April 1st) to July 1st 2011:
Omaha - 868,097 - 877,110 +09,013 +1.0% 58th largest size, 45th largest numerical gain
Lincoln - 302,954 - 306,503 +03,549 +1.2% 154th largest size, 98th largest numerical gain

Next adding the new MSA counties:
July 1st 2010 to July 1st 2011
Omaha - Council Bluffs NE/IA MSA - 904,788 to 913,883
Lincoln MSA - 317,154 to 320,848

Omaha - Lincoln - CB NE/IA CMSA - 1,221,942 to 1,234,731

http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/m/ Great tool!

[DMRyan]

I'm a little less bullish on Omaha-Lincoln or Des Moines-Ames becoming anything more than CSAs as a result of commuter thresholds for the foreseeable future. If they are combined as an MSA, I think there's a greater chance the metros would agree to petition the Census Bureau to be a consolidated MSA for the greater strength of the region. However, in the case of Lincoln, it may be tough to be a stand-alone metro now only to have to play 2nd fiddle in name as a combined MSA under this scenario, espcially since the city is really starting to break out on its own lately. Also, as each respective metro's population goes up, the commuter threshold can be harder to obtain. Both places have a large employement base of their own, rather than being predominently commuter communities.

*****

Here's how the Des Moines area would stack up if a few additional counties were added. Again, I don't think any counties will be added to the MSA other than Jasper and perhaps Clarke, but all may be fodder for a CSA designation.

Boone: 26,255
Clarke: 9,356
Jasper: 36,547
Marshall: 40,980
Marion: 33,335

The rosiest scenario including Polk, Story, Dallas, Warren, Marshall, Jasper, Marion, Madison, Boone(in the Ames CSA), Guthrie, and Clarke (this is more or less a 60 mile commuter radius number):
Total: 816,571


The more realistic scenario including Polk, Dallas, Warren, Jasper, Madison, and Guthrie:
Total: 616,802

[DMRyan]

I also want to cite my source I'm pulling this data from, the State Data Center of Iowa:

http://data.iowadatacenter.org/cognos8/ ... ts&gohome=

[erik]

I'm a little less bullish on Omaha-Lincoln or Des Moines-Ames becoming anything more than CSAs as a result of commuter thresholds for the foreseeable future. If they are combined as an MSA, I think there's a greater chance the metros would agree to petition the Census Bureau to be a consolidated MSA for the greater strength of the region. However, in the case of Lincoln, it may be tough to be a stand-alone metro now only to have to play 2nd fiddle in name as a combined MSA under this scenario, espcially since the city is really starting to break out on its own lately. Also, as each respective metro's population goes up, the commuter threshold can be harder to obtain. Both places have a large employement base of their own, rather than being predominently commuter communities.

*****

Here's how the Des Moines area would stack up if a few additional counties were added. Again, I don't think any counties will be added to the MSA other than Jasper and perhaps Clarke, but all may be fodder for a CSA designation.

Boone: 26,255
Clarke: 9,356
Jasper: 36,547
Marshall: 40,980
Marion: 33,335

The rosiest scenario including Polk, Story, Dallas, Warren, Marshall, Jasper, Marion, Madison, Boone(in the Ames CSA), Guthrie, and Clarke (this is more or less a 60 mile commuter radius number):
Total: 816,571


The more realistic scenario including Polk, Dallas, Warren, Jasper, Madison, and Guthrie:
Total: 616,802

It's interesting how the percentage of commuters from Lincoln continue to increase even though the amount of people continues to increase. Also, Omaha's growth on the Nebraska side has primarily been south and west right towards Lincoln. It'll be fun to see how this plays out.

I hope your optimistic viewpoint works out. I'm a big fan of Des Moines and the region as a whole.

[Mastermind]

I'm a little less bullish on Omaha-Lincoln or Des Moines-Ames becoming anything more than CSAs as a result of commuter thresholds for the foreseeable future. If they are combined as an MSA, I think there's a greater chance the metros would agree to petition the Census Bureau to be a consolidated MSA for the greater strength of the region. However, in the case of Lincoln, it may be tough to be a stand-alone metro now only to have to play 2nd fiddle in name as a combined MSA under this scenario, espcially since the city is really starting to break out on its own lately. Also, as each respective metro's population goes up, the commuter threshold can be harder to obtain. Both places have a large employement base of their own, rather than being predominently commuter communities.

*****

Here's how the Des Moines area would stack up if a few additional counties were added. Again, I don't think any counties will be added to the MSA other than Jasper and perhaps Clarke, but all may be fodder for a CSA designation.

Boone: 26,255
Clarke: 9,356
Jasper: 36,547
Marshall: 40,980
Marion: 33,335

The rosiest scenario including Polk, Story, Dallas, Warren, Marshall, Jasper, Marion, Madison, Boone(in the Ames CSA), Guthrie, and Clarke (this is more or less a 60 mile commuter radius number):
Total: 816,571


The more realistic scenario including Polk, Dallas, Warren, Jasper, Madison, and Guthrie:
Total: 616,802

It's interesting how the percentage of commuters from Lincoln continue to increase even though the amount of people continues to increase. Also, Omaha's growth on the Nebraska side has primarily been south and west right towards Lincoln. It'll be fun to see how this plays out.

I hope your optimistic viewpoint works out. I'm a big fan of Des Moines and the region as a whole.

I think the best comparison for MSA's becoming one in Iowa would be Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. This is more similar to Omaha Lincoln, though on a smaller scale IMO.